加裕养猪评论：中国正在建设更多的养殖场

　　加裕养猪评论　　　　Pork Commentary　　　　加裕总裁兼CEO Jim Long　　　　Jim Long, President-CEO Genesus Inc.　　　　2017年4月10日　　　　April 10, 2017　　　　全球可用耕地面积　　　　Global Arable Acres　　　　自2006年以来，记录显示全球生产农作物土地增加了1.79亿英亩（8200万公顷）。土地供应增加有两个主要因素。美国玉米乙醇补贴和中国谷物油籽需求增加。这两个因素进一步推高了粮食价格，导致增强盈利能力，鼓励耕地投入生产。与此同时，新技术全球范围内施展，继续推高收益率。我们已经看到报道，声称全球玉米产量已经从2006年的2600万立方公吨增加到2016年的4100万立方公吨。一个庞大的增长。　　　　结果：更多的土地投入生产，更高的收益，更多的增加谷物和油籽产量。　　　　产量的增加导致谷物和油籽价格更低。美国农场净收入已经从2013年的1200亿美元下降到2017年估计的620亿美元。　　　　Since 2006, a record increase of 179 million acres (82 million hectares) of crop production has been brought in worldwide. This increase was brought on by two main drivers. U.S. corn Ethanol subsidisation and China’s increased grain-oilseed demand. These two factors drove grain prices higher, leading to enhanced profitability that encouraged arable land into production. At the same time, new technologies were brought to bear globally that has continued to push yields higher. We have seen reports that claim global corn production has increased from 26 million metric tonnes in 2006 to 41 million metric tonnes in 2016. A huge increase.　　　　Bottom line: more land in production, higher yields, significantly more grain and oilseed production.　　　　This increase in production has led to lower prices for grains and oilseeds. American net farm revenue has dropped from $120 billion in 2013 to an estimated $62 billion in 2017.　　　　上周，我们回顾了3月1日美国农业部生猪报告。母猪群体从12月1日到3月1日减少了22000头。我们已经预期繁殖群体会出现显著的扩群。我们还没有看到这个情况。部分现实情况是养猪利润率低。另一个因素可能是美国农场净收入的下降。随着公司股权价值，现金流动的减少，银行变成进取型放款人的欲望和能力在下降。我们的前提是这些因素一直在限制扩群。　　　　我们目前看到在全球范围内较低的谷物价格可能影响其他地区的盈利能力。欧盟，加拿大，俄罗斯，还有巴西的低谷物-油籽价格，影响他们的总农场净收入。较低的价值影响公司股权，现金流动等，我们相信全球生猪群体产量将会缓和。　　　　在养猪高收益的国家（如中国，100美元每头），其他任何股份因素的影响都是无关紧要的。因此，中国正在建设更多的养殖场，猪价格胜过这一切。　　　　Last week, we reviewed the USDA March 1 Hogs and Pigs Report. The sow herd decreased 22,000 from December 1 to March 1. There has been expectations of a significant expansion of the breeding herd. We haven’t seen it. Part of the reality is low profit margins for pigs. The other factor could be the drop in U.S. net farm revenues. With the decrease is a decline in Ag equity wealth, cashflow, and the desire and ability of banks to be aggressive Ag lenders. Our premise is that these factors are keeping a lid on expansion.　　　　The lower grain prices we are currently seeing globally are probably affecting other areas’ profitability. Lower grain-oilseed prices in the European Union, Canada, Russia, and Brazil are affecting their total net farm revenues. The lower wealth has an effect on ag equity, cashflows, etc. that we believe will temper global swine herd production.　　　　In countries with high swine profitability (ie China, $100 per head), any effect of other ag factors are next to irrelevant. Consequently, the Chinese are building more swine infrastructure, pig price trumps all these.　　　　市场　　　　Markets　　　　美国瘦肉型生猪价格几周前已经失去了大部分势头。美国瘦肉型生猪价格上周已从70美分下跌到0.63美元以下。同期，美国分割猪肉也从80美分下降到0.75美元/磅。生产商和屠宰商的利润都在倒退。主要原因是有太多的生猪-上周比去年的同一周增多了150,000头生猪，去年是215.9万头。当你处于一个非弹性供给和需求行业中，这种额外增加的猪肉吨数则是一个真正的推高价格的阻尼器。我们希望看到接下来几周生猪生产季节性下降。我们仍然期望瘦肉型生猪价格在夏天的时候可以达到0.80美元。　　　　注意：我们现在讨论俄罗斯生产商。他们已经很有一段时间每头猪50美元利润范围内浮动。俄罗斯生产商询问我们美国-加拿大市场盈利情况如何。我们回复行业希望每头猪5-10美元。俄罗斯生产商停顿了一下，然后以一种难以置信的表情看着我们，接着问“谁会愿意为了这么点钱去养猪！”好问题，很难回答。　　　　The U.S. lean hog price has lost much of the momentum it had a few weeks ago. The U.S. lean hog price has declined from in the 70’s to below $0.63 last week. In the meantime, U.S. pork cut outs have declined from the 80’s to $0.75/lb. Producers and Packers all going backwards on margins. Big reason lots of hogs – 150,000 more last week than the same week a year ago, when there was 2.159 million. When you have an inelastic supply and demand industry, this extra tonnage of pork is a real damper on driving prices higher. We expect to see a decline in hog production seasonally in the next few weeks. We still expect lean hogs can reach $0.80 in the summer.　　　　Note: We were talking to Russia Swine Producers. They have been making in the $50 USD per head range for a significant time. The Russia producers asked us what profitability was in the U.S.-Canada market. We replied the industry hopes for $5-10 per head. The Russia producer paused, then looked at us with an incredulous look, then asked, “Why would anyone produce pigs for so little money!” Good question, and hard to answer.　　　　家庭　　　　Family　　　　随着我们周游世界，我们观察到相同的现实。人们想要照顾他们的家庭，还有提高自己的机会。这是教育的一部分。教育有两部分-正式的和非正式的。非正式的可以包括在农场工作，和运动。团队运动可以教很多东西，包括团队合作，同事间相互尊重，共同达成目标，但是最重要的是努力。我们都能掌控努力。努力可以是我们的孩子走的更远。　　　　正如大部分父母（如果不是所有的父母），我以我的四个孩子自豪。我希望他们学会了努力。　　　　我的小儿子，Aidan，他打曲棍球。伦敦小骑士，他的团队，是安大略省97支有攻击性的球队之一。星期天，我观看一场经过10个月工作的比赛高潮，奉献，技巧，因此他的团队获得了安大略州加冕冠军。　　　　就像所有父亲一样我希望他的人生是成功的。他拥有欲望并且努力去实现，拥有一个好的人生。曲棍球和团队运动是人生中非正式教育的一点。作为父母，我们为孩子们拥有梦想。　　　　As we travel the world, we observe the same reality. People want to look after their families, and improve their opportunities in life. Part of that is education. Education comes in two parts – the formal and the informal. Informal can include working on the farm, and sports. Team sports can teach many things, which can include teamwork, peer respect, achieving of goals, but most of all, effort. Effort we all can control. Effort can get our children far.　　　　As most if not all parents, I am proud of my four children. I hope they have learned effort.　　　　My youngest son, Aidan, plays hockey. His team, the London Jr. Knights, was one of 97 Bantam teams in Ontario. On Sunday, I watched a culmination of 10 months of work, dedication, and skill, as his team was crowned Champion of all Ontario.　　　　I hope like all fathers his life is successful. He has the desire and effort to achieve and have a good life. Hockey and team sports is a piece in the informal education of life. As parents, we have dreams for our children.　　　　Bob Wiebe加入加裕公司担任区域经理　　　　Bob Wiebe Joins Genesus as Territory Manager　　　　Bob Wiebe　　　　T: 204-381-7287　　　　E: bobwiebe@genesus.com　　　　加裕公司高兴地宣布，Bob Wiebe将出任Manitoba区域经理。　　　　Bob Wiebe有丰富的养猪经验，管理过自己家族经营的1700头母猪猪场。Bob过去的销售经验表明，他服务周到而且专业，同时保持较高的客户满意度。　　　　加裕公司总部位于Manitoba。1995年在Manitoba成立的加裕公司，已经发展成为世界主要养猪基因公司之一。加裕公司以扎根在Manitoba而自豪。我们知道Bob会保持和发展我们Manitoba大本营。加裕公司欢迎Bob来到加裕Manitoba家庭.　　　　Genesus is pleased to announce Bob Wiebe as Territory Manager, Manitoba.　　　　Bob has extensive swine experience, operating as Manager of his family-owned 1700 sow unit. Bob’s past sales experience has shown him to be courteous and professional, while maintaining high customer satisfaction.　　　　Genesus’ home is Manitoba. Since starting in Manitoba in 1995, Genesus has grown to be one of the major swine genetic companies in the world. Genesus is proud of our Manitoba roots. We know Bob will maintain and grow our Manitoba home base. Genesus welcomes Bob to the Genesus Manitoba family.