加裕养猪评论：美国现货猪价持续上涨

加裕养猪评论　　　　Pork Commentary　　　　加裕总裁兼CEO Jim Long　　　　Jim Long President – CEO Genesus nc.　　　　美国现货猪价持续上涨　　　　U.S Cash Hog Price Continues to Rise　　　　美国生猪生产商正受益于快速上涨的猪价。上周53-54%瘦肉猪价格从62.50美分攀升到69.94美分。每头猪增加了15美元的收益。在过去两周内，市场上每头猪收益已经增加了近25美元。上周五美国胴体分割猪肉价格为83.29美元，这种情形下，我们预计瘦肉猪价格还会继续上升。对于屠宰商来说，仍有30美元的毛利润。我们预计美国每周生猪市场交易的季节性下降还会持续，这将推高分割猪肉价格，同时随着每周生猪交易减少，屠宰商的利润也会下降。这两个因素都将导致瘦肉猪价格的上涨，我们仍然预计今年夏天瘦肉猪能涨到80美分。　　　　我们已经说了几个月的夏季瘦肉猪价格能达到80美分，应该没有大问题，因为上周五7月瘦猪肉期货收于78.60点，而我们是在7月廋肉猪期货70美分的时候提出的80美分。时间会证明我们是对的。我们相信季节性生猪供应下降，强劲的出口销售，更低的屠宰加工毛利和新屠宰场产能的提升，是廋肉猪价能涨到80美分的诀窍。　　　　U.S Hog Producers are getting the benefit of rapidly rising prices. In the last week 53-54% hogs went from 62.50 to 69.94. A gain of $15 U.S per head. The market has added nearly $25 a head in the last two weeks. We expect lean hogs continue to rise with U.S pork carcass cut-outs $83.29 last Friday. There is still $30 per head gross margin for Packers. We expect the seasonal decline of U.S hogs marketed per week to continue to decline which will push pork cut-outs higher and with less hogs marketed per week for Packer margins to decline. Both factors will lead to lean hog prices increasing and we still expect lean hogs in the 80’s this summer.　　　　Saying 80￠ in summer which we have said consistently for months is not a big risk when July lean hog futures closed Friday at 78.60, but we were saying 80 when July futures were 70￠. Time will tell if we are right. We believe seasonal hog supply decline, strong export sales, lower packer margin and new packing capacity coming on is the recipe for 80￠ plus lean hogs.　　　　其他观察　　　　Other News　　　　今年新建的首批屠宰加工厂已经开始投入生产。“优级猪肉”，位于明尼苏达州温顿的全新的屠宰厂已经开始屠宰生猪，在运行的头两周内，他们所有生产目标都是学习入门。工厂如果满负荷运转，每天能够屠宰6000头生猪。　　　　“优级猪肉”的重点是生产口感较好的-美味猪肉。加裕公司十分荣幸能与“优级猪肉”合作，他们的目标是成为优质猪肉的品牌领导者。　　　　在“优级猪肉”之后，爱荷华州的“Seaboard – Trumph”和密歇根州的“Hatfield’s”也将投入生产。毫无疑问，美国的屠宰产能正在扩大，这对美国生猪生产商来说是个好消息，提高利润率的好机会。　　　　The first of the major new U.S packing plants to be started this year has begun production. Prime Pork in Windom, Minnesota, a state of the art plant has begun harvesting hogs with all targets of production being net in the first two weeks of running. The plant at full capacity will harvest 6000 head per day.　　　　Prime’s focus is on producing the best tasting – flavorful pork. Genesus is proudly associated with Prime and its goal to be a brand leader in quality pork.　　　　After Prime, Seaboard – Trumph in Iowa and the Hatfield’s in Michigan will come online. No doubt U.S packing capacity is expanding, only good news for U.S hog producers and the opportunity for margin enhancement.　　　　越南　　　　Vietnam　　　　上周的Genesus全球市场报告中，你可能会读到越南令人崩溃的猪价。接近70美分的生产成本（饲料价格高）。越南生猪市场，每磅猪肉损失37美分，每头猪大约损失100美元。前段时间，越南农户还能够售出1.07美元/磅的价格。然而中国关闭了“活猪”交易=市场不景气。我们预计越南将会有大规模的清群。当生猪生产者每头猪亏损100美元时，就会发生这种情况。越南是世界上第六大生猪生产国。　　　　This past week you might have read in Genesus Global Market Report the collapse of prices in Vietnam. With a cost of production near 70￠ U.S lb. (high feed prices). Vietnam hog market is 37￠ lb. losses per head are near $100 U.S per head. A while ago Vietnamese farmers were getting $1.07 U.S per pound. Then China cut off live hogs going there = market collapse. We expect massive herd liquidation will be underway in Vietnam. Its what happens when hog producers lose $100 per head. Vietnam is the sixth largest hog producing country in the world.　　　　中国　　　　China　　　　据加拿大种猪出口商协会代表胡松报道，在过去10周中国的生猪价格从17.02元/公斤(1.12美元/磅)下跌到14.95元/公斤（98美分/磅），创2015年以来最低点。从分娩到育肥出栏，生产每头猪仍然可以盈利340.63元（49美元）。在中国的生产成本大约是每磅活重80美分。这个生产成本可不低。如果美国生产商每磅活重的价格能有80美分，他们将会开心得跳起来。　　　　As reported by Hu Song CSEA in the past 10 weeks the China national hog price declined from 17.02 Yuan/kg ($1.12 U.S lb.) to 14.95 Yuan/kg, 98￠ lb. U.S. which is the lowest since 2015. Hog production is still profitable 340.63 Yuan per hog $49 for farrow to finish. Cost of production in China is roughly 80￠ U.S lb. live weight. Certainly is not a low cost producer. If U.S producers got 80￠ lb. live weight they would be dancing for joy.　　　　生猪生产与房地产类似。位置，位置，位置。　　　　Hog production is similar to real estate. Location, Location, Location.　　　　加裕新闻稿　　　　Genesus Press Release　　　　铁骑力士集团是由雷文勇先生（英文名雷霆）25年前创办。它是农业部指定的中国农业综合企业之一，有3条产业线，包括牲畜饲料、畜禽养殖和食品加工。在全国拥有51家子公司，超过6000名员工，年营业额在20亿美元左右。该公司目前存栏商品蛋鸡约300万只，种鸭60万只和母猪2万头。业务未来发展将专注于生产和销售品牌猪肉，在四个主要地区投入400万头生猪产能，分别是四川三台县，四川凉山地区，贵州铜仁地区和新疆石河子地区。Genesus将提供来自加拿大的注册纯种猪。我们将提供种猪遗传和技术服务，利用这些新遗传资源，降低生猪生产成本、改善猪肉品质，促成TQLS商业策略。　　　　TQLS was formed by Mr Lei Wenyong (Thunder in English name) 25 years ago. It is one of the China National Agribusiness Flagships designated by the Ministry of Agriculture with three business lines including livestock feed, livestock and poultry farming and food processing. There are over 6,000 employees working for its 51 subsidies across the country with annual turnover near USD $ 2 billion. The Company currently has an inventory of about 3 million egg layers, 600,000 breeding ducks and 20,000 sows. The future expansion of business will focus on production and marketing of branded pork with an projected capacity 4 million hogs in four major locations-Santai County of Sichuan, Liangshan Region of Sichuan, Tongren prefecture of Guizhou and Shihezi prefecture of Xinjiang.　　　　Genesus will provide registered purebred swine breeding stock from Canada. These new genetics will contribute to above TQLS business strategy by lowering the hog production cost and improving meat quality through the supply of swine genetics and technical service. 　　　　铁骑力士集团与加裕公司合作签字仪式　　　　TQLS and Genesus Contract Signing Ceremony　　　　中间为雷文勇先生和加裕公司副总裁Mike Van Schepdael　　　　Center Mr. Le Wenyong (Thunder) and Mike Van Schepdael Vice President - Genesus