2017年5月1日周价格表
俄罗斯猪肉市场报告 Russia Pork Market Report Simon Grey 俄罗斯，独联体，欧洲区域总经理 General Manager Russia, CIS, and Europe simongrey@genesus.com 目前
猪肉价格是110卢布每公斤（1.92美元）。对于经营良好的养殖户来说，养猪依然利润很大，但对于其他很多养殖户来说不是。很多养殖户甚至亏损（尽管看起来难以置信）。一周以前，我被问到“在俄罗斯粮食成本低（每公吨
小麦8900卢布（156美元）），劳动力成本低（大约每月500美元），能源成本低（加油站每升汽油0.56美元）的时候，为什么生产成本如此之高”？ 俄罗斯想要继续发展养猪业并且成为净出口国。在我看来，这是一个非常明智的野心。俄罗斯有一个广袤的土地储备，可以生产更多的粮食。有很多的土地可以建造养殖场，当然还有利用粪浆处理—作为一种有价值的
有机肥料，可以增加作物产量。这就是当今很多有技术的养猪户能够获得全球竞争力的生产结果。 发展养猪业的一个主要障碍是高(平均)生产成本。当你想要经营像猪肉这样的全球大宗商品，你需要具有全球竞争力的成本。在任何商品市场，成本最低的生产商占有优势。 Pig price currently is currently 110 Roubles per live kg ($1,92). For good farmers, pigs co
ntinue to be very profitable, but for many not! Some are even losing mo
ney (incredible though it seems). I was asked a week or so ago, “why when Russia has low grain cost (wheat at 8900 Roubles ($156) per metric tonne), low labour cost (a
bout $500 per month) and low energy cost (petrol $0.56 per litre at the pump) why are costs of production so high”? Russia wants to co
ntinue to grow its pig industry and become a net exporter. For me this is a very sensible ambition. Russia has a massive land bank and can produce a lot more grain. There is a lot of land to build farms on and of course use for slurry disposal - as a valuable organic fertilizer that can increase crop yields. There are today a lot of skilled pig farmers who can get globally competitive production results. One major obstacle to this happening is a high (average) cost of production. When you want to trade a global commodity like pig meat, you need to be globally competitive on cost. In any commodity market the lowest cost producers have the advantage.
随着欧洲养猪业的成长，也曾经在世界最大的生猪生产商工作过，很容易看出俄罗斯养猪行业的额外成本。 Havin
g grown up within the European pig industry and also havin
g worked for the world’s largest pig producer it is very easy to see wher
e the extra costs are. 1.先进是过度立法，其中大部分来自苏联。在前苏联时期，每个人必须工作。创办国有农场是为了养活人们和让人们有职业，而不是为了盈利。 有些现代立法似乎来自于欧盟。据我所见，欧盟稳固立法使得养猪户退出生产，随着越来越多的规则，只是增加了生产成本，最终仅仅是把猪肉成本转嫁给了消费者！！ 过度立法是许多高成本的原因。就在上周，我去了一个成立于前苏联时期的农场。里面有超过400人服务7000头母猪！生产每头猪的薪酬成本大大高于欧洲或北美。 管理成本、董事们、会计师、律师等等成本，超过了每头猪销售的9美元。我认为这部分成本应该为每头猪1美元，就算是考虑到俄罗斯的过度管理成本，最多也就2美元。 过度立法增加了所有事情的成本。农场造价昂贵（虽然劳动成本和建筑材料成本低）。批准建造的过程就很花费高，而且耗时长。获得银行贷款受行政管理，过程复杂。 1, The first is excessive legislation, most of which comes from the USSR. In soviet times, everyone had to have a job. State farms were created to feed and occupy people, not to be profitable. There is some modern legislation that seems to originate from the EU. As far as I can see, the EU is steadily legislating its pig farmers out of business, with more and more rules that simply add to cost of production and ultimately o
nly put up the cost of pork for the consumer!! This excess legislation is the cause for many high costs. Just last week I was at a farm that was set up in Soviet times. There were over 400 people working with 7000 sows! The total salary cost per pig produced was co
nsiderably higher than either Europe or North America. The administration costs, directors, accountant’s lawyer’s etc. was in excess of $9.00 per pig sold. I would be targeting $1per pig, even taking into account the excess administration in Russia a maximum of $2! Excess legislation adds to the cost of everything. Farms are expensive to build (despite low cost labour and building materials). The process of getting permissions is expensive and slow. Getting bank loans is administrative and complicated. 2. “我想要”文化。过去12年里，我在俄罗斯生活过很长时间，我观察到很多被妈妈惯坏了的孩子，尤其是男孩。他们小时候就学会可以得到他们想要的任何东西。这种行为跟随他们进入了工作生活中。宠坏了的孩子永远学不会事物的真正价值。 在设计农场时，“我想要”增加了成本。在决定饲养原料、药品或其他补给时，“我想要”增加了成本。在决定雇佣多少人和发放多少薪水时，“我想要”增加了成本。 2, The “I want” culture. Havin
g spent a lot of time in Russia over the past 12 years I observe many spoilt children, especially boys, spoiled by their mothers! They learn from an early age that they can get whatever they want. This behaviour follows some into their working lives. Spoilt children never learn the real value of something. When designing farms, ‘I want’ adds to the cost. When deciding on feed ingredients or medicines or other supplies, I want’ adds to cost. When deciding on how many people and salaries ‘I want’ also adds to cost. 3.无法做出决定。这是前苏联时期“惩罚文化”导致的。犯错误会被惩罚，成功却被忽视。直至今天，如果一个俄罗斯农场经营不善，我觉得99%的精力会投入找到谁是责任人，而不是去解决这个问题。 害怕受惩罚意味着许多场长每天关注的焦点在于如何避免犯错误，并且试图找到一个罪魁祸首。很多时候我在猪场问经理要一个简单的生产报告。很多时候我都被告知，对不起，我不能提供，数据输入员今天休息，只有她才能打印报告。我回答，但是你是场长，你肯定能够获得信息并且能运行管理程序。回答，不，这不是我的工作！ 无法做出决定，意味着相比于冒险改变事情，不改变事情会更加容易。因此，什么都没改变，生产保持不变，不可避免的成本上升！上升！ 决策是非常容易的。好的决策能够增加利润（售价更高，成本更低）。糟糕的决定会减少利润（更低售价或者更高成本，或者二者均有）。场长，从定义上看，是受雇于管理，这就要求场长对日常事务要做出决定。你所需要的就是一个计算器，来判定决定是好还是坏。 3, Inability to take decisions. This is caused by the “punishment culture” that comes from Soviet times. Mistakes were punished, success ignored. Still today if something goes wrong on a Russian farm, it seems to me that 99% of the effort is put into finding who was responsible, rather than sorting the problem. Fear of punishment means many managers daily focus is avoiding mistakes and trying to find someone to blame for anything. I have been on farms many time and asked manager for a simple production report. Many time I have been told, sorry I can’t, the data in-putter is on holiday today and o
nly she can print reports. My response, but you are the manager, surely you have access to information and can run the management program? Answer, no its not my job! The inability to take a decision means its easier to change nothing, than risk changing something. Therefore, nothing changes, production stays the same and inevitably costs rise and rise! Taking decisions is very easy. Good decisions increase profitability (more sales or lower cost or both). Bad decisions reduce profitability (less sales or higher cost or both). Managers by definition, are employed to manage, this requires taking decisions on a daily basis! A calculator is usually all you need to decide is a decision is good or bad. 4.补贴和保护市场。两者都对帮助建立行业有重要作用，但只有在作为催化剂的时候（行业必须在在没有支持的情况下盈利，否则补贴就是一个坏主意）。 最终不论如何补贴对于帮助公司成为全球竞争者并没有起作用。他们只帮助公司保持低效率和低盈利。 4, Subsidies and protected market. Both have an im
portant place in helping to establish business, but o
nly as a catalyst (the business has to be profitable without the support, otherwise it is a rally bad idea to subsidise). Ultimately however subsidies do nothing to help companies become globally competitive. They do help to keep inefficient and poorly business profitable! 5.经常有人告诉我说“俄罗斯人喜欢痛苦”。这是使俄罗斯变成今天的俄罗斯的原因（我们只需看看俄罗斯是如何处理第二次世界大战时德国的入侵）。俄罗斯人民忍受恶劣的工作和生活条件，低工资，低质量食物，糟糕的服务的能力，真是难以置信!我听过很多次“这就是俄罗斯”。 接受“事物一直如此，什么都不会改变”会阻碍真正的发展。 在俄罗斯可以看到一些非常聪明的企业家，想要创建先进的具有全球竞争力的业务。我看到很多非常聪明的年轻场长，他们理解成本高的问题，他们对于要在桌子上填写报表，而不能在农场上生产更多的猪十分沮丧。我还看到农场里面许多熟练的生产工人，他们更愿意做更多的工作和赚更多的钱。 5, ‘Russians like suffering’ is something I am often told. This is something that has made Russia what it is today (we need o
nly look at how Russia dealt with the German invasion in the 2nd world war. The ability of Russian people to put up with poor work and living conditions, low salaries, poor quality food, bad service, is incredible! I hear so many times “its Russia”. Accepting what has always been and nothing will change stops real development. In Russia is see some very clever business owners that want to get on and create excellent globally competitive business. I see many very clever young managers who understand the problems of high cost and who get very frustrated being desk bound filling in forms, rather than being on farms producing more pigs. I also see many skilled production workers on farms who are more than willing to do more and earn more money. 俄罗斯很容易提高2倍（也许3倍）生猪产量，但不是通过雇佣一个人。 这会发生吗？时间会告诉我们的。 Russia could easily double (and maybe triple) its pig production and not hire a single person! Will all this happen? Time will tell. Simon Grey 俄罗斯、独联体和欧洲区域总经理。 Simon Grey General Manager Russia, CIS and Europe.
